A blog by Sean McKenna.
What if we knew the outcome of an event before undertaking that very event? Or what if we knew how best to approach an event such as to arrive at the outcome that we want?
There is no doubt that Alexander the Great and his military advisors would have constantly asked themselves this as they thought up their next strategic campaign.
But this sounds a lot like trying to predict the future, which we know in itself is impossible.
If Alexander the Great had been able to predict the outcome of each of his military campaigns, logistical operations, political and policy decisions, then he would have been unstoppable.
So then, instead of trying to predict the future, what if he aimed to prepare as best as he could for it?
What if he could practice that event, under a variety of different circumstances in a simulated environment, such that he knows how best to approach it?
This is what simulation systems aim to achieve. But what are simulation systems?
By definition, simulation studies are computer experiments that involve the creation of data by pseudo-random sampling (Morris, White and Crowther, 2019). That is, they generate outcomes (sequences of events) through the use of statistical models and complex mathematical algorithms. Simulation studies can be used to model and simulate real-world scenarios, processes, or systems.
Had this modern IS technology and its capabilities been available to him at the time, how would Alexander the Great and his military advisors have implemented simulation studies into their strategic and decision-making process?
Military Planning
Alexander the Great and his military advisors would have used simulation studies to assist in their military strategy and warfare decision-making process. By having access to simulation systems, Alexander the Great could have simulated military campaigns prior to their undertaking, such as to optimize his strategy.
To do this, he could have used agent-based simulation models. Agent-based simulation models use a collection of autonomous decision-making entities called agents within the model. These agents may then execute a variety of behaviors depending on their functions (Bonabeau, 2002). In the context of its military application by Alexander the Great, the agents may have been heavy cavalry such as the Thessalian cavalry, light calvary such as the Paeonian cavalry, heavy infantry such as the Hypaspists, and light infantry such as the Peltasts (MilitaryHistoryNow, 2022). These agents of the Macedonian army may have then been put against the agents of the Achaemenid Army, consisting of the infantry (pasti), cavalry (asabari) and the charioteers (History of Iran, 2022).
Alexander the Great and his military advisors may have then implemented the agent-based simulation model as follows:
- System Modeling: Alexander would have defined the rules of the model mathematically. Here he would have assigned the battlefield rules to the model, implementing his prior knowledge on opponent strategy, and fighting tactics. He would also have defined the battlefields geography and weather mathematically to account for as many variables as he could. This is also where he would experiment with his own tactics and strategies.
- Agents Generation: Alexander would have then generated the agents of his own army, including data such as the health, agility, strength, range etc of each agent. He would then have estimated the same for his enemy, or used any data of which he had collected prior to define their characteristics.
- Simulation Execution: The simulation would then be executed, with both armies set against each other, fighting by the battlefield rules defined in the systems modelling.
The results from the simulation would then be collected and used in the generation of Alexander the Greats military strategy. The simulation could be re-run depending on the knowledge obtained from each simulation run, such as to optimize the findings.
This ability to implement computer-based simulation studies into his military planning and strategy would have allowed Alexander the Great to experiment with a variety of different tactics such as to maximize his military strength. It also would have allowed him to choose which military campaigns to pursue and when, helping with his overall goal of empire expansion.
This very tactic was also used by the human race in the fictional blockbuster Enders Game (IMDB, 2013). Battle scenarios were simulated between humans and alien forces such that the military strategists could develop a strategy to take down the enemy.
Military Training and Education
Alexander the Great could also implemented computer-based simulations into his troops training and education.
The primary issue with military training is that in order for soldiers to gain experience they must fight, except that without much experience they will be much more susceptible to dying on the battlefield before they get enough experience!
Thus, in order to prepare his troops as best as possible for battle, Alexander the Great could have implemented the use of simulated environments into his troops training, using techniques such as virtual reality.
Virtual Reality (VR) is a computer-generated environment with scenes and objects that appear to be real making the user feel as if they are immersed in their surroundings (CORPORATIVA, 2020). The use of virtual reality could have allowed Alexander the Great to train his troops in safe environments, although simulated to provide realistic, and immersive experiences of what to expect on the battlefield.
This would have allowed the Macedonian Army to have experience fighting, problem-solving, and travelling throughout their military campaigns, prior to even conducting them!
As a testament to its functionality and effectiveness, look no further than the UK Ministry of Defense, which has secured a £7.2million contract to deliver a virtual reality training environment capable of simulating multiple military environments and operations (Gov.uk, 2022).
The use of these simulations could provide Alexander the Great and his army with a significant boost for their training, which could then be used to help expand their empire further.
Political and Economic Modelling
As one of the most prominent leaders of all time, Alexander the great had many large cities under his rule. One of the most difficult tasks he would have face would have been ensuring these cities satisfaction with his ruling, such that they did not rebel against him and the Macedonian Empire.
One such method whereby he could ensure his successful ruling would have been through the implementation of governmental policies that were received well in each city. But that begs the question of how he would have known which policies and political environments to maintain in each city.
Alexander the Great could have used simulation studies to model and predict the outcomes of different political and economic policies and decisions in each city. Throughout his reign, Alexander the Great expanded the Macedonian empire over 5.7 million miles (National Geographic Society, 2018). This means that he would encounter many different cultures and ways of life of which he had not experienced before. Each of the cities across this large area would have had different cultural values and lifestyles, and so it would have been important for him to establish governments that could appeal to these people and their respective values in each city.
Alexander the great could have implemented the following simulation modelling methods to ensure political and social stability and prosperity in his empires many cities;
Agents-Based Modelling: Similar to above, Alexander the Great could have modelled the interaction between the governments, businesses, and citizens through the use of agents-based modelling, governed by the political and social policies of which he put in place. This would have allowed him to assess which policies would work in each city to ensure the stability and satisfaction of the people in each city.
System Dynamics Modelling: Systems Dynamics is a computer-based mathematical modelling approach for strategy development within complex systems. It uses computer-aided simulation methodology based on feedback systems theory (University of Bergen, 2022).
By executing simulation studies using system dynamics modelling algorithms, Alexander the Great could model the social systems in each city, and gain an understanding of how different political and social policies would impact the population properties/characteristics in each city. The implementation of system dynamics modelling could then be used to choose those political and social policies which maximize the stability, prosperity, and satisfaction of each city within the empire.
Econometric Modelling: Econometric Models are used to forecast future developments in the economy. Econometricians measure economic indicators such as consumer spending, household income, tax rates, interest rates, employment etc, and then aim to forecast how changes in some variables will affect the future course of others (Hymans, 2002).
Regarding the fiscal policies in place in each city, Alexander the Great could have implemented econometric models to simulate the effects that different fiscal policies would have on each city. This would have allowed Alexander the Great to have ensured the financial prosperity of each city, which in turn would have ensured high levels of productivity, which would ensure the expansion and success of his empire.
The implementation of the above modelling methods in simulation studies could thus ensure the satisfaction and prosperity of those newly founded cities under the Alexander the Greats Macedonian empire.
Alas, this blog post must come to an end!
As we already know, Alexander the Great is highly regarded as one of the greatest leaders of all time.
There is no doubt that had he had access to modern simulation systems, he would have leveraged them to the best of his ability, granting him the ability of superior military strategy, military training, and political power, and as such, may have allowed him to expand his empire across the globe.
Thanks for reading!
-Sean
Bibliography
Alexander the Great | National Geographic Society (2018). Available at: https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/alexander-great (Accessed: 19 December 2022).
Bonabeau, E. (2002) ‘Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(suppl_3), pp. 7280–7287. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082080899.
CORPORATIVA, I. (2020) Virtual Reality: another world within sight, Iberdrola. Available at: https://www.iberdrola.com/innovation/virtual-reality (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
Ender’s Game (2013) – IMDb (2013). Available at: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1731141/ (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
Forecasting and Econometric Models (2022) Econlib. Available at: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ForecastingandEconometricModels.html (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
History of Iran: Achaemenid Army (2022). Available at: https://www.iranchamber.com/history/achaemenids/achaemenid_army.php (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
Morris, T.P., White, I.R. and Crowther, M.J. (2019) ‘Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods’, Statistics in Medicine, 38(11), pp. 2074–2102. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8086.
The Macedonian Army – Meet the Elite Ancient Soldiers Who Made Alexander ‘Great’ – MilitaryHistoryNow.com (2022). Available at: https://militaryhistorynow.com/2022/06/14/the-macedonian-army-meet-the-elite-ancient-soldiers-who-made-alexander-great-2/ (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
UK military enhancing training through virtual reality (2022) GOV.UK. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-military-enhancing-training-through-virtual-reality (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
What is System Dynamics? (2022) University of Bergen. Available at: https://www.uib.no/en/rg/dynamics/39282/what-system-dynamics (Accessed: 27 December 2022).
Alexander IS the Greatest 
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